IronBridge Private Wealth

Forward with Confidence

We’re All Cats on a Hot Stove

Waiting for a correction in the stock market? It may have already happened.

If a cat sits on a hot stove, that cat won’t sit on a hot stove again. That cat won’t sit on a cold stove either. That cat just don’t like stoves.

mark twain

It’s hard to believe, but the COVID market crash ended 16 months ago.

It was truly a black swan event. Something that came out of nowhere and was unlike anything the global financial markets have seen in over 100 years.

One of the most common questions we receive is, “When is the next crash going to occur?”

This is a good question, and a very logical one. And one we think about quite often.

After all, we are seeing a rise in the Delta variant, many cities are re-instituting mask policies, and there is discussion of additional lock-downs. Sounds like February and March 2020, right?

On top of that, we have the random 1,000-point decline that happened on July 19th. Read our comments in our article “Are the Dog Days of Summer Over?“

So there are valid reasons to be expecting a sharp market decline.

But we have been receiving this question for well over a year now.

In the past year, there has been a great deal of hesitation to put cash to work in the stock market. Granted, some people were very quick to put cash to work, but most were very hesitant. And many remain so to this day.

Why?

To fully answer both the question “Why?”, and the question of whether we should expect another market crash soon, we need to understand the human behavior factors at play.

We’re All Cats That Sat on a Hot Stove

As humans, we don’t arrive at skepticism by accident.

In fact, being skeptical is an extremely valuable survival tool. Especially when we see conditions that were similar to past experiences that caused us pain or harm.

The are three basic components of skepticism:

  1. You perform an action.
  2. You experience pain.
  3. You learn to avoid the conditions that caused the pain.

It isn’t rocket science. In fact, we can probably just file this alongside the long list of other things we’ve said that won’t win us a Nobel prize.

In the quote that we referenced at the beginning of this report, Mark Twain presents the ultimate completion of this three-step cycle:

  1. A cat sits on a stove.
  2. The cat burns his you-know-what.
  3. The cat never sits on a stove again, regardless of whether it is hot or cold. Because every stove now looks like a hot stove to the cat.

Pretty simple, right?

Sort of.

Most problems in life arise when we forget to do Step 3: Learn from past experiences.

We have all experienced situations that may have caused us pain that we ended up right back in for no good reason.

Substance addiction, bad relationships, a bad job…there are all sorts of examples of people forgetting about Step 3.

Many times we’re cats who sit right back on top of that stove. And many times we are once again burned.

But what happens if learning from past experiences is the REASON we are harmed in the future?

What if we perform Step 3 beautifully, learn to avoid the situation that caused harm, only to then be harmed MORE by the fact that we avoided the situation that previously caused us pain?

This is what happens in financial markets.

When you lose money in the stock market, you have to go back on the same exact stove that burned you if you want to get back in.

This is where the complexity starts to set in.

In markets, you have to think about Step 3 differently.

The lesson learned cannot be one of complete avoidance.

You must have the cognitive ability to reshape HOW you learn lessons about what got you in trouble in the first place.

After losing money in a big market decline, most of us think that the lesson should be to NOT get back onto the market stove. After all, it looks pretty hot, right? Delta variant, super high valuations, a massive rally from last March and an out-of-control Fed all make us think the temperature on the stove is pretty darn hot.

But just because these things are happening doesn’t mean you should avoid it altogether.

Don’t Avoid the Stove, Just Start to Use a Thermometer

Instead of avoidance, you must begin to use tools that can assess both the current temperature of the stove (markets), as well as the direction and rate of temperature change of that stove.

It is a rational response to avoid the stock market after getting walloped by it. In fact, it is the exact response that would help you avoid that pain in the future.

Many investors go through a big decline and turn into real estate investors. Or private equity investors. And that’s okay.

Markets are not for everyone.

But don’t believe that getting burned on stove means that there is something inherently wrong with stoves.

There is an opportunity cost to avoiding the stove.

The public financial markets provide access to fantastic investment opportunities with a tremendously high degree of liquidity. The primary benefit of liquidity, or the ability to get out of your investment quickly at little to no cost, is that you don’t have to be right all the time. You can change your mind and you can easily get out of things that aren’t working.

You simply need to start using tools that allow you to assess the temperature of the market.

At Ironbridge, we use a wide variety of tools. We won’t get into the specifics, but we use momentum analysis, trend analysis, RSI, MACD, DeMark Signals, and many other data points that help direct our decision-making. We have then developed sets of rules that drive our actions.

The whole point is that it’s important to have some gauge of the temperature of that burner, and not not simply guess when we jump onto it.

So Is the Stove Hot or Cold Right Now?

Okay, enough of the long analogy about stoves. Let’s get to the market analysis.

Bottom line, while the S&P 500 has not seen a correction since last November, we have already seen a correction in many assets.

Let’s look at the following charts to show what we’re talking about:

  • Russell 2000 (Small Caps)
  • China Stocks
  • Emerging Market Stocks
  • Big Tech Names
  • S&P 500 Sectors
  • S&P 500 Index itself

Before we start, a brief note on stock corrections.

Corrections can take two forms. They can happen via TIME, or via PRICE.

A price correction is what we usually think of when we think about a market pullback. Stock prices were going up, then they fall anywhere from 5% to 30%. Then resume their move higher.

But markets can correct in TIME as well. This simply means that they go through an extended, multi-month period with little price movement up or down.

Both time and price corrections serve the same purpose: remove excesses from the markets and get the ratio of buyers and sellers more in balance.

Okay, on to the charts.

Russell 2000 (Small Caps)

First, let’s look at the Russell 2000. After a strong surge following the Presidential election, small caps have been little changed since February/March.

The Russell 2000 small cap stock Index has been in a sideways consolidation for most of 2021.

The blue box in the chart above is a classic correction in TIME. Small caps have been choppy with no direction for six months now. These patterns tend to resolve themselves higher, so we should expect that as the base case scenario.

However, a break below 208 in the chart above would be a more ominous signal. This could lead to selling pressure expanding across the market, and not just be isolated to small caps.

International Stocks

Next, let’s look at China and other international stocks.

The next chart is that of China Large Cap Stocks, using the ticker FXI.

China large cap stocks are down 25% from the 2021 highs. Ticker FXI.

This is a classic correction in PRICE. Stocks are down 25% since February. There is little doubt the direction of this trend.

The same is true of other, more broad international stock indices.

Emerging market stocks are down over 15%, as shown in the next chart. This is no real surprise since China is the largest component. But it is another example of a major global equity market component that is experiencing a correction right now.

International stocks have been weak. There is no question about that.

U.S. Stocks

What about some of the major U.S. stocks?

Well, here is when we start to see what is really happening in U.S. stocks right now.

The next chart shows four of the largest U.S. stocks: Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Netflix.

These charts show us that each of these stocks went through some sort of TIME correction in the past year.

  • On the top left of the chart is Amazon (AMZN). It was in a sideways move for almost a year. It broke higher, but fell back into it’s chop zone last Friday after a 7% decline following earnings. This is called a “false breakout”. Meaning it may have longer to go before it breaks out of its sideways correction.
  • Apple (AAPL), on the top right, shows a classic break higher from a sideways correction. It also spent over a year in a TIME correction before resolving higher.
  • Microsoft (MSFT), on the bottom left, was in a TIME correction for the second half of last year. It has steadily been moving higher since the start of the year.
  • Finally, Netflix (NFLX) is shown on the bottom right. This was a darling of the COVID period, and remains in a TIME correction since this time last year.

Each of these stocks experienced a correction. And these are major components of the S&P 500.

The fact that these stocks are breaking higher suggests we should have a bullish tilt to our thinking.

S&P 500 Sectors

Looking some of the sectors in the S&P 500, we see a similar picture.

The next chart looks at the Energy, Industrials, Tech, Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We could have chosen more, but the chart gets way too busy.

Each of these sectors have all seen some sort of correction in the past year. Most have been correcting in TIME.

Energy has been the biggest winner since the election. There is an excellent lesson here. The pundits on CNBC and elsewhere all predicted a Biden presidency would harm energy companies. That would make sense logically. But the market responded in exactly the opposite way. The lesson? Using the financial media for investment decisions is not a sound strategy.

This sideways movement of the major S&P sectors suggests that corrections are actually happening under the surface of the market.

But what about the overall market itself?

S&P 500 Index

But here’s the strange thing: Despite corrections happening in both the major stocks and major sectors within the index, the S&P 500 Index itself has been very strong.

Despite the underlying TIME corrections happening in various sectors, and despite the obvious PRICE correction in international markets, the S&P 500 is up. In a very, boring, beautiful pattern higher.

So What Does All of This Mean?

It means that if you’re expecting a stock correction, it may have already happened.

As strange as this sounds, the underlying components in the markets have all mostly corrected already. Without an overall market correction.

Chalk this up as a win for indexers.

This is also why at IronBridge we have both active and passive strategies in place.

In fact, we have had the highest exposure to the S&P Index in our four-year history. We could only go about 5% higher in our portfolio weighting to the S&P 500 Index based on our rules. At the high point, clients had exposure of anywhere from 25-35% of their portfolios, depending on the risk level.

While the S&P has been boring, it’s more interesting to look at the small caps and international stocks.

Earlier this year, our clients had exposure to both of these areas. And both were stopped out at relatively small losses.

For small caps, that wasn’t such a big deal. Prices are similar to where they were when we exited.

But for international stocks, they are down 15-20% lower than where we exited.

Such is the nature of risk management.

We don’t know when things will reverse higher, chop sideways, or continue lower. Guess what, no one else does either.

But was has been interesting about this year is that there has been both volatility and no volatility at the same time. The stove is both hot and cold.

So it would be completely logical to expect the S&P to experience some sort of correction, either in PRICE or TIME.

But the underlying components suggest that we shouldn’t bank on it either.

There is a chance we have already seen the correction via the underlying components and the selloff in other areas.

If this is the case, the second half of this year should be strong. And will likely extend into next year.

If the S&P 500 does start to experience a correction, the likelihood is that it is relatively mild and most likely happens via a TIME correction.

In the meantime, look for opportunities to put cash to work, and stick with a disciplined risk management process.

Invest wisely!

Building Your Life Team

Assistance, teamwork and achievement concept. silhouette of man helping friend climbing rock to top and success together

A time-tested piece of career advice is to find a mentor.

But as the world gets more complex, simply having a good career mentor isn’t enough.

You need a team. In today’s reality of multiple jobs, the ability and ease of changing your career path and the sheer number of choices we face every day, one mentor isn’t really going to cut it. The new approach is to build a team that can help you create an intentional life.

Your relationships, your community, your work…all your choices should help you build towards the life you want – while ensuring you can stay true to yourself along the way.

There’s no blueprint or roadmap to help us know if we’re making the right decisions or not.

But there is one thing you can do to help make it easier: build a ‘life team’.

What Is a Life Team and Why Would You Need One?

A life team is a hand-selected group of people that you believe can bring value to your life. This is not like on the playground at recess where you pick the most athletic team member.

Your life team is made up of people with a myriad of skills, experiences and strengths that can provide valuable, timely advice and help you navigate through the challenges and complexities of life.

It’s easy to think that as we go through life we must fend for ourselves; however this is far from the truth. Being able to learn from others and bounce ideas off each other can be beneficial to both parties. And having trusted professional relationships can help in many aspects of life.

They can act as a sounding board for tough decisions. Be there to help with decision-making when at a crossroads. And provide emotional support when the going gets tough.

We’ve broken down the big areas where you may want to find counsel and support in different disciplines – but of course, all of these can work in multiple situations.

Building Your Financial Foundation

One aspect of your life team that may already be established is your financial team. This consists of professionals that can help navigate the financial side of life and typically includes roles such as a wealth advisor, a CPA, and an attorney.

Since everyone has to file taxes, a CPA is usually one of the first relationships that gets established. However, CPAs and accountants usually do more than just taxes and can play a critical role when it comes to helping to build your wealth.

And just like an accountant does more than just taxes, wealth advisors typically do more than just investments. Having a trusted wealth advisor in your corner may turn out to be one of the best investments you make. Primarily because they help steer the ship in your financial life. From helping manage financial risk to growing your net worth to helping uncover and clarify your goals, a financial advisor is there with you through it all.

And when it comes to the legal aspect of finances, a trusted attorney is another professional relationship that can bring value. One of the biggest aspects of your financial life that an attorney can help with is estate planning. You’ll want to get this started early, and keep them updated about your situation over time, so they can provide better solutions as things change.

Ideally, these three professionals will work in tandem to provide you with confidence and clarity in both your professional and your financial life.

Finding Your Guides Through Life

Most of us spend most of our time on a few things – our family, our hobbies and passions, and our career. When it comes to our careers, it’s easy to begin feeling stuck or complacent. That’s where career and life mentors can play a vital role.

The typical role that a life coach plays is helping individuals feel more fulfilled by clarifying their goals, identifying what’s holding them back, and then coming up with strategies to help them move forward. If you’ve felt stuck in life or in your career, a life coach may be the unlock to success and happiness.

Mentors are still valuable – you just may need more than one. With a career mentor, it’s wise to seek out someone who’s a few years ahead of you as well as someone who’s a couple decades ahead of you. The reason is because these relationships can help build perspectives that you wouldn’t have. And through these conversations, you can create a history that speeds up your own learning curve so you can effectively advance and progress through your career.

A good mentoring relationship is just that – a relationship. It should be valuable to both people.

Staying Centered Through It All

As we all know, life comes at us fast. We’re always solving the next problem while trying to keep up with our current way of life and finding time to work on careers while spending time with family, while following your own passions and interests. It’s tough to find that fleeting equilibrium that we call work-life balance.

A common route that people take when trying to find balance in their life is picking up new or forgotten hobbies. This may be something you enjoyed as a kid that got pushed to the side as life picked up speed, or a passion that you’ve never had the time to explore. Having a hobby or activity that can help take your mind off the day to day stresses of life is an effective way to not only stay centered, but to also live a more fulfilled life.

The rise of our digital lives, and in particular social media, is often cited as one of the negatives of modern society – but there is a big benefit, if you avail yourself of it. The proliferation of apps, blogs, and influencers who focus on wellness makes it incredibly easy to incorporate these elements into your life. The level of comfort we all have now with videoconferencing has added yet another element.

Creating a meditation practice, developing a yoga or other spiritual-based exercise routine you can incorporate into your mornings, even joining a like-minded community that works towards change – these can all add a necessary element of discipline, health and clear-mindedness that can be hard to access as we go through our daily lives. 

The Takeaway

Through intentional relationship building, you can begin to form a team of people around you that can provide valuable advice and necessary feedback.

When seeking out a life team, it’s important that you first understand your own weaknesses so you can determine the most impactful relationships to build.

To get the most out of your life team, make sure you stay in regular contact and share updates, accomplishments, and challenges because this will make them feel like they’re a part of your story and your mission which will only increase the value of the relationship for everyone.

The information contained herein is intended to be used for educational purposes only and is not exhaustive.  Diversification and/or any strategy that may be discussed does not guarantee against investment losses but are intended to help manage risk and return.  If applicable, historical discussions and/or opinions are not predictive of future events.  The content is presented in good faith and has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  The content is not intended to be legal, tax or financial advice.  Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional for information specific to your individual situation.

Are the Dog Days of Summer Over?

A calm summer for the markets was interrupted today with a large selloff. Is this just a blip, or is it the start of a bigger decline?

What happened:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Index closed down 725 points, or 2.09%
  • S&P 500 was down 68 points or 1.59%
  • The media blamed COVID fears, but it looks more technical in nature
  • VIX Index rose nearly 40% at one point during the day
  • Bonds had their best day of the year, with long-term US Treasury prices up over 2%

Near-Term Market Assessment:

  • Numerous warning signs have been happening over the past three months:
    • Lumber prices have fallen 68% from their highs.
    • 10-Year Treasury Yields have dropped from 1.76% in March to 1.19% today.
    • Fewer stocks have been participating in the slow drift higher since mid-February. Today, more than 50% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are below their 50-day moving average (more on this below). That number has been steadily rising since April.
  • It is too early to tell if this selloff will continue. Bull markets tend to have short, sharp declines like this.
  • The S&P 500 Index is only 3% off its all-time highs. So the fear seems somewhat unwarranted at this point.

Portfolio Implications:

  • We have been systematically raising our stop-losses over the past few months.
  • We sold two positions today, one stock ETF and a high-yield bond ETF. Both moved to cash equivalent ETFs.
  • We may get further sell signals this week. If we do raise cash this week, it may not remain in cash very long if the market decides to resume its move higher.
  • We do not know when a short-term decline will turn into a long-term decline. That’s why we have rules and don’t try to guess. This kind of environment has the potential for a “whipsaw”, where we move from invested to cash and back to being invested. This is definitely not the favorite part of our process, but it is a natural consequence of having disciplined rules and not just winging it.

Market Discussion

Markets were down over 2% today. The primary (and easy) explanation is COVID. Every state in the US is showing a rise in cases. Los Angeles reinstated mask requirements this past weekend (even for those fully vaccinated). Other parts of California and possibly New York City may follow suit with mask requirements.

Naturally, any volatility in the markets is blamed on the most recent “thing”. It’s natural to assume that the rise in cases we are seeing now would result in a market environment like we saw in early 2020. We’re human and that’s what we do…extrapolate past events and assume they will happen again.

But the reality is that there were plenty of factors to explain the move lower today.

And they are mainly technical in nature.

First, market breadth has been very narrow the past few months.

This simply means that fewer and fewer stocks have been in uptrends, despite markets drifting higher. In fact, many stocks have been in downtrends since April.

The chart below shows the percentage of the S&P 500 Index that has been above its 50-day moving average (50dMA).

S&P 500 Index components above 50 day moving average following the market decline of July 19, 2020.

The 50dMA is simply the average price of a stock over the last 50 trading days. A stock above that level is generally considering to be in a rising trend (or a bull market). A stock that falls below that level is considered to be in a declining market.

What the chart above shows us is that while the market has been drifting higher, over 50% of the stocks in the index were in bear markets in June. This is referred to as “breadth”.

This indicator is similar to a game of jenga. When there are many blocks supporting the tower at the start of the game, the tower is strong and sturdy.

But as the game goes on, there are fewer blocks supporting the ever increasing height of the jenga tower.

This is happening in the stock market. When there are a lot of stocks supporting the index, it is more sturdy. In April, over 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index were above their respective 50dMA. But as more and more stocks begin to reverse trend and fall, the index get wobbly.

This is very similar to mid-2018. We wrote about breadth in our “Soldiers are AWOL” report. After a weakening breadth environment in mid-2018, the market corrected by 20% in Q4 of that year.

The big tech stocks have been doing the heavy lifting in the past three months. The same exact thing happened in 2018.

The next reason is simply that the market is overdue for a correction.

So while COVID is to blame, the fact remains that we are due for a pause following the massive rally from the COVID lows last year. The market has had very little pauses, and is well overdue for a correction.

We shared the next chart in our last email newsletter, but it’s worth sharing again.

This shows the market rallies from previous major bear market bottoms. Three environments are shown here (1982, 2009 and 2021).

This chart suggests we are due for a natural pause given the strength of the move from March 2020’s lows.

So while the news is blaming COVID, the reason for today’s selloff seems to be much more technical in nature than simply worry about the delta strand.

The next few days will provide tremendous insight into what may happen over the coming weeks and months.

We had two sell signals today, selling one stock ETF and a high-yield bond ETF.

There is a chance we get many more sell signals this week.

However, no one knows if this is just a blip or if it is the start of something bigger.

Given the positive trends in the economy, continued massive support from the Fed, and the very technical nature of the market selloff today, we should assume that the bull market is still in tact, but due for a pause.

Risk management is a priority for us and our clients. Therefore, we will not wait to see what happens. We will act on our signals, and adjust course as necessary.

That could mean increased cash, but it could also mean that cash on the sidelines today gets put back to work very shortly.

Either way, the dogs days of summer could indeed be over for the stock market, even if it simply means a temporary pause in the bull market.

Please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns you have.

Invest wisely!

Managing an Inheritance

Last Will And Testament With Money And Planning Of Inheritance

Inheriting wealth can be a burden and a blessing. Even if you have an inclination that a family member may remember you in their last will and testament, there are many facets to the process of inheritance that you may not have considered. Here are some things you may want to keep in mind if it comes to pass.

Keep in mind this article is for informational purposes only and is not a replacement for real-life advice, so consider speaking with a legal or tax professional before making any decisions with an inheritance.

Take your time. If someone cared about you enough to leave you an inheritance, then you may need time to grieve and cope with their loss. This is important, and many of the more major decisions about your inheritance can likely wait. You may be able to make more informed decisions once some time has passed.

Don’t go it alone. There are so many laws, choices, and potential pitfalls – the knowledge an experienced professional can provide on this subject may prove critical.

Think of your own family. When an inheritance is received, it may alter the course of your own financial strategy. Be sure to take that into consideration.

The taxman may visit. If you’ve inherited an IRA, it is important to consider the tax implications. Under the SECURE Act, distributions to non-spouse beneficiaries are generally required to be distributed by the end of the 10th calendar year following the year of the account owner’s death.

It’s also important to highlight that the new rule does not require the non-spouse beneficiary to take withdrawals during the 10-year period. But all the money must be withdrawn by the end of the 10th calendar year following the inheritance. A surviving spouse of the IRA owner, disabled or chronically ill individuals, individuals who are not more than 10 years younger than the IRA owner, and children of the IRA owner who have not reached the age of majority may have other minimum distribution requirements.

Stay informed. The estate laws have seen many changes over the years, so what you thought you knew about them may no longer be correct.

Remember to do what’s appropriate for your situation. While it’s natural for emotion to play a part and you may wish to leave your inheritance as it is out of respect for your relative, what happens if the inheritance isn’t appropriate for your financial situation? A financial professional can help determine if the inheritance fits with your overall goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.

The Fed is Stuck

Despite economic data showing massive improvement from the COVID recession and inflation running hot across all parts of the economy, the Fed continues to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system. Why? They know that if they stop, things will come crashing down.

It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

Henry Ford

The Federal Reserve board met earlier this month to discuss their interest rate and bond purchase strategy.

Following the meeting, markets fell nearly 2% on terrible news that surely signaled the Fed was going to finally pop the massive bubbles across the markets and economy.

What news was that?

Instead of raising interest rates in 2024, they were considering doing it in 2023 instead.

WHAT???

You can’t make this stuff up. Markets sold off hard because the FIRST interest rate hike might occur 2 years from now instead of 3.

Granted, markets (as they often do), reassessed the situation and realized that the Fed just brought a huge case of booze to spike the punch bowl even more, despite the party-goers being ragingly inebriated and in no shape to consume more. Markets promptly recovered those big losses.

But inflation is obviously running hot. The economy is obviously improving. There are millions of job openings. Employment data would be incredibly strong if government stimulus had not made it more profitable for people to not work than getting many lower waged jobs.

Despite things being in much better shape than it was a year ago when the Fed flooded the market with liquidity, they continue to add $80 Billion each WEEK into the financial system.

Why?

The answer is pretty simple…they are stuck.

They will tell you the reason is that inflation is “transitory”. (This is a word you are likely to hear way too much of in the coming months.)

In some ways, inflation is transitory. We recently shared a brief blog post “The First Wave of Inflation is Receding“, where we showed that lumber prices fell over 50% from recent highs.

Let’s share the chart of lumber in case you missed that report. (We published it on social media, so be sure to follow us for the latest reports.)

Lumber prices skyrocketed but have fallen over 50% since earlier this year.

In just over one year, lumber prices went from under $300 per unit to over $1700.

These are crazy price movements.

As soon as everyone was predicting that inflation was here to stay, lumber prices fell 52% in a matter of weeks.

Human Behavior and History

The price of lumber is exactly what we are talking about when we discuss inflation waves. Our thesis is that inflation will not just immediately come upon us and stay. Instead, it will ebb and flow into the economy in gradually increasing levels.

This thesis is based on both human behavior and history.

The impact from human behavior is pretty easy to think about. Let’s look at the recent increase in home values and lumber as our primary example:

  • The pandemic locked people in their homes.
  • People became tired of their homes. They wanted a bigger/nicer/different place from which to live and work.
  • Demand for homes started to increase.
  • Increased demand for homes caused increasing demand for lumber.
  • Homebuilders and other opportunists saw the price of lumber increasing and started to purchase lumber for future projects. Aka, “hoarding”.

This is how inflation works. Prices begin to rise, and it makes more sense to buy something now, because it will most likely become more expensive in the future.

Inflation can, in fact, be self-fulfilling. High prices tend to lead to even higher prices. It’s FOMO, the “fear of missing out”.

While at first inflation supports even more inflation, there comes a point where it is also self-correcting.

Prices reach a level where it simply doesn’t make any sense to buy it. Whatever “it” is.

This is what happened with lumber. Prices simply became too expensive and people stopped buying it.

We’re not winning any Nobel prizes in economics for this one.

The pace of home building slowed down, and people stopped hoarding lumber. Things just got too expensive. When demand slows, prices tend to fall. Voila. Lower prices.

This is what the Fed is banking on. They believe that inflation is “transitory” because they believe in the self-correcting mechanism of inflation itself. They believe that human behavior will naturally keep a lid on the inflation rate.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair, said last week that she expects to see 5% inflation this year, but that it will drop to 2% by sometime later this year or in 2022.

Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell blamed inflation on supply bottlenecks in various ports across the globe. He suggests that once this bottleneck gets resolved, inflation will decrease as a result.

Here’s a great article from Reuters about it:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-debt-yellen-inflation/yellen-says-inflation-should-be-lower-than-current-levels-by-year-end

In the short-term, they are probably right…inflation does tend to self correct.

But higher prices also can be sticky.

Why? The expectations of sellers increase.

Let’s say you are going to sell your home. Over the past few years, homes have sold for $800k-900k pretty regularly in your neighborhood. So you list your home for $900k.

But you just saw ten of your neighbors’ homes sell for $1.2MM. Two even sold for over $1.4MM, but maybe they had done some upgrades. What would you do? Probably increase your sales price (either officially or just mentally) to $1.2MM. That is the new floor.

Homes didn’t stay at the peak sales price. But they stuck at a level higher than the previous prices. Not quite as high as the highest price point, but significantly higher nonetheless.

Outside of a crisis, either personally or economically, you’re probably not going to ask for less than what the average or most common sales price has been. Your expectations have caused a stair-step higher in price. Two steps forward, one-step back.

Thus, we have our first inflation wave.

Simply from human behavior.

These inflation waves happened before. We are no different than previous generations, other than the fact that our access to information is much more easily and quickly accessible than in the past.

We discussed the historical reasons for this theory in “The Coming Inflation Waves“, so we won’t go back over the details. We’ll only say that every inflationary cycle over the past 300 years has started in this way, so it’s a pretty easy bet that it will happen the same way again this time. Humans are, after all, still human.

That does not mean the coming inflation cycle will be easy to predict with regards to timing and magnitude.

The price of lumber should not have risen by THAT much over the past year. But it did. And we have one group to thank…the Fed.

The Fed’s easy money policy for over a decade has put massive amounts of liquidity into the markets and economy. And that makes the inflation cycles much more difficult to predict.

The Wildcard: The Fed

There are smart people on the Federal Reserve Board.

The people at the Fed know that the financial system has become dependent on the easy money policies instituted over the past 13 years.

And they know that if they start to reduce the amount of liquidity they are injecting into the markets that they will lose control of both the narrative of financial stability and the upward support of asset prices.

Let’s look at a couple charts that shows results of the Fed’s actions.

First is a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet versus the S&P 500 Index, courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice.

Fed Balance sheet versus the S&P 500 index. Stocks are highly correlated with the Fed's actions.

It doesn’t take a professional statistician to see that there is a correlation between how much money the Fed is printing and stock prices.

This chart is all over the investment industry, and the Fed certainly knows of this correlation as well.

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said back in 2010 that stock prices were a way to deliver confidence into the economy. Read it HERE.

Ever since then, the Fed has viewed their role as the driver of stock prices.

But why would increasing liquidity support stock prices?

Simple…it increases valuations.

The next chart, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows an even higher correlation between the Fed and stocks. And it shows the REASON why stocks prices have gone up with the Fed balance sheet.

This chart shows the Fed’s balance sheet versus the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. P/E ratios are the most common way to show valuations in the stock market by taking the price per share of a company’s stock and dividing it by the earnings per share.

Fed balance sheet causes stock valuations to increase.

This chart is much more in sync than the first chart. For example, in the chart above of the Fed vs the S&P 500 Index, there was a period between 2017 and 2019 where the Fed’s balance sheet declined, but stock prices rose.

When we look at the chart of valuations, we can see that between 2017 and 2019 valuations actually declined as prices rose. Valuations reflected the reduction of the Fed balance sheet while prices kept moving higher.

The secret to the Fed’s ability to impact stock prices, it seems, is by increasing valuations.

The primary way valuations are affected is by investor sentiment.

So what this really tells us is that the Fed is driving investor behavior by flooding the market with trillions of dollars of liquidity.

Exactly like Mr. Bernanke said.

And here lies the problem.

The Fed needs to pump the markets with so much liquidity that the economy becomes so strong that stocks will remain stable even if they stop asset purchases. God forbid they actually go so far as reducing their balance sheet.

More accurately, the Fed needs to pump so much liquidity into the market that they generate so much CONFIDENCE in the economy that the Fed can taper without crashing the system.

So far it is working.

Markets have become dependent on the Fed to keep prices afloat. They expect it.

If the Fed tells the market that they will raise rates in two years, it is similar to telling a drug addict that they are going to rehab in a couple months.

What would that addict do? They would binge on everything they could get their hands on and roll into Betty Ford in a stupor.

That’s what we’re witnessing in financial markets. Risk taking is everywhere. Assets of all types have been sought after. Prices across the board have gone up. We’re in an environment where even fake digital assets with dog memes are being coveted.

This speculative attitude towards risk could contribute to a massive rally over the coming months or years. Similar to the tech mania in the late 1990’s. Unbridled speculation would lead to one final blow-off top that puts a cherry on top of the bull market. Chef’s kiss.

Unfortunately, the same support of massive risk taking today is laying the groundwork of the volatility that will follow.

The Fed knows this as well.

Thus, they are stuck.

Do they rip off the Band-Aid now and stop the party? Or do they continue to support the craziness?

It comes down to one thing: they don’t want the party to stop on their watch.

It is easy to criticize from the outside. But no one wants to be in charge when it comes crashing down.

And that’s what we’re dealing with.

No matter how well-intentioned the people at the Fed may be, they are still human too. And they don’t want to go down in history as presiding over the end of the golden era of speculation investing.

So we’re likely to continue on the current path until someone is forced into action.

And inflation is the likely culprit.

The Fed will likely change the narrative before they start to tighten. They will start to blame something other than their own policies. They will blame bottlenecks or China or Congress or us. Anything but their own policies.

And that’s when we’ll know the cycle is truly changing.

When the consequences of the Fed’s actions are eventually felt, Henry Ford’s quote in the beginning of this report will most likely prove significant. For there is likely to be a backlash against the Fed for the reckless behavior and influence.

Until then, we must be prepared for volatility, but we must be prepared for an out-of-control stock market first. And out-of-control markets can be a lot of fun.

But now is not the time for complacency. And it is not the time to be stubbornly bullish or bearish.

Now is the time to be stoic. Be completely in tune and at peace with reality. When investing, that’s a good state of mind to be in anyways.

We can’t unstick the Fed. But we can try to navigate the consequences of their actions, whether good or bad.

Invest wisely!

The Cryptocurrency Conundrum

Bitcoin, ethereum and Dogecoin have fallen dramatically in recent weeks.

Recently, you may have seen a number of major cryptocurrencies fall thanks to a continuing sell-off that began in the past few weeks. In fact, over $250 billion was lost in the crypto market alone.1

It may be tempting to view this as another volatile moment in the crypto markets, but there’s more at work here than a temporary trend towards selling.

Prior to this moment, over 50% of the world’s cryptocurrency was mined in China using custom-built computers with a high hashrate. Hashrate, or the rate at which calculations can be performed, is a crucial factor for those who “mine” cryptocurrency. The higher the hashrate, the more calculations that can be completed per second, and the more cryptocurrency that can be mined.2

However, these super-powered machines also require a phenomenal amount of power—enough to overload local infrastructure in some cases.3

This has led to China directing its electric companies to cut power to major crypto-mining operations across the country. The question is, why now? There may be multiple reasons, but the Chinese government has claimed that it’s acting now because of concerns around crypto’s volatile price, concerns over electricity use, and cryptocurrency’s potential use for money laundering and illegal dealings.4

With all of this in mind, it’s more important than ever to be aware of your risk tolerance if you’re thinking about exploring cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not a currency at all. It’s a speculative asset class that is not appropriate for everyone. Only people with a high-risk tolerance should consider cryptocurrency assets.

Like other alternative assets, cryptocurrency can be illiquid at times, and its current values may fluctuate from the purchase price. Cryptocurrency assets can be significantly affected by a variety of forces, including government decisions, economic conditions, and simple supply and demand.

Give us a call today if you have any questions about the above, or just want to chat. We’re always here to help!

1. CNBC.com, May 19, 2021
2. Theverge.com, June 23, 2021
3. Visualcapitalist.com, 2021
4. Reuters.com, May 21, 2021

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

The First Wave of Inflation is Receding

Waves recede in the sunset, similar to how the first wave of inflation is receding.

Last month we wrote in our Insights report “The Coming Inflation Waves” that we should not expect inflation to come at us all at once. Instead, we should expect it to come in waves.

Well, it looks like the first wave is starting to subside.

Lumber prices were one of the most common data points when the topic of inflation was discussed. Rightfully so…it went up nearly four-fold from 2020 into early 2021.

The chart below shows just how dramatic the price movements have been.

Lumber prices were up four times from the COVID low, and have now fallen 50% from their highs. Signs of inflation acting in waves.

This is exactly what we are talking about when we discuss the “waves” of inflation that we will likely see. Two steps forward and one step back will likely be the continuing pattern of price movements for inflationary assets like lumber over the coming years.

However, all inflationary assets will not move exactly in tandem. There will be ebbs and flows all around global markets.

But it is easy to see just how fast inflation can both make its presence known and recede and fall in price.

These types of price movements are the perfect conditions for investment mistakes. Make sure you stick to a disciplined process that adjusts to the changing landscape. Do not stubbornly buy and hold, but do not subject yourself to the emotional roller coaster of big price movements either.

This type of volatility lends itself to opportunities if handled correctly. But it also is full of risks for those not prepared.

Eggs in How Many Baskets? Prioritizing Building Wealth While You Build Your Business

Don't have too many eggs in one basket when you're a business owner.

Employees of publicly traded companies are often granted company stock as part of the compensation package. From a portfolio management perspective, holding outsize amounts of stock in the same company that provides income can increase risk. If the business were to become wobbly, not only would the stock decrease in value, but the employee could also potentially find themselves out of a job. Employees who are granted stocks often mitigate this risk by selling some of the company stock and reinvesting it in other assets, to diversify growing wealth away from the source of income.

But what about when you own your business?

The situation becomes more complex. One strategy that’s often followed is to put everything except living expenses back into the business while you are growing it, and then sell part of the business or take on a strategic investor to help you begin to diversify elsewhere. Retirement planning is put on the back burner until the business has grown to a point where the business can be monetized.

We think there is a more thoughtful approach that may work for business owners.

The Key: Diversification

While it may seem like a good idea, relying solely on your business as your source of wealth can expose you to a lot more volatility than you think. Whether it’s saving for a rainy day, or longer-term goals like retirement, if all of your wealth is tied up in your business, your business dictates your moves. Creating and regularly adding to a separate investment portfolio may help diversify your assets.  And if you invest away from areas you are already exposed to in your business, it can be a powerful tool to help you smooth volatility across both your business and life.  For instance, if your business is vulnerable to cyclical sectors, you’ll want to create an investment portfolio that is defensive against those sectors. 

Retirement Savings Tax Advantages

There can be significant tax advantages to setting up the right kind of retirement plan for your business and ensuring that you set aside money to invest as close to the maximum as possible every year. While there are of course upfront fees and ongoing costs associated with formal retirement plans, they also allow you to save in a very tax-advantageous manner. Depending on your situation, a 401(k) plan and a cash balance plan are tools you can use to save and look towards a future income stream you can access without having to sell your business. They can also be a great way to attract and retain talented employees.

How About Timing?

When you’re putting everything back into your business with the idea that you’ll eventually fund your retirement by selling all or part of it, you’re essentially making two bets: That you’ll be able to sell when you are ready and not before, and that when you are ready the market for your business will be at a good point for an exit.  Having to liquidate early because you are no longer able to run the business, or having to sell when either the business is struggling or the market isn’t right, can limit the amount you realize. You only get to sell it once, and your retirement life will be dependent on what you realize. If you’ve planned for a source of retirement income away from your business, you’ll have more flexibility when it comes time to sell.

 The Bottom Line

Even as you’re building your business, it makes sense to think about your personal wealth as a completely different stream of future income. Thinking about diversification across your total asset profile can get you started on a journey to financial independence.

The information contained herein is intended to be used for educational purposes only and is not exhaustive.  Diversification and/or any strategy that may be discussed does not guarantee against investment losses but are intended to help manage risk and return.  If applicable, historical discussions and/or opinions are not predictive of future events.  The content is presented in good faith and has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  The content is not intended to be legal, tax or financial advice.  Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional for information specific to your individual situation. This work is powered by Seven Group under the Terms of Service and may be a derivative of the original. More information can be found here.