An important skill in volatile markets is to acknowledge that you don’t know what will happen. We review the conflicting signals to help understand the current environment.
federal reserve
Fed Raises Interest Rates: Implications and What We’re Watching
After reducing rates from 2.5% in 2019 to zero at the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates by 0.25%. What does this mean and what should we be watching?
Ukraine War: Market Update
This may be the most important few weeks since the 2008 financial crisis. We review the sanctions against Russia, look at the S&P 500, and discuss the Fed’s likely path forward.
Fed Meeting: Popping the Bubble or Normal Volatility?
So much for the New Year’s wish of putting 2020 and 2021 behind us and getting back to normal. Or are we? The markets had one of the calmest years in history last year, mainly on the back of the mega-cap tech firms. But that calm was shattered as the market fell over 12% in […]
5 Themes for 2022 and Why We Hate Year-End Predictions
We hate year-end predictions. Maybe “hate” is the wrong word…it is far to kind. We absolutely despise the cringeworthy year-end predictions that accompany this time of year. (Feel free to imagine other colorful adjectives we may use to describe them.) Why? Because they are worthless. There is no accountability whatsoever for those who make them. […]
Houdini’s Hole
The Paramount Theatre in Austin, Texas is a city treasure. It has an amazing variety of shows, and the list of notable performers is unmatched. It was built in 1915, and began mostly as a vaudeville house. Just a few of the notable performers in its history are Miles Davis, the Marx Brothers, George Carlin, […]
The Federal Reserve Trading Scandal: Just the Tip of the Iceberg?
Are the trading scandals within the Fed just the tip of the iceberg? It may signal the start of lost trust in institution that is very important to markets.
The Wolf and the Crane
Aesop was a Greek storyteller who lived from 620-564 BCE. His stories were verbally passed down through time, and often included tales of animals and inanimate objects that could speak and solve problems. Many of Aesop’s Fables are commonplace even to this day. We are all familiar with the story of the tortoise and the […]