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IronBridge Private Wealth

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volatility

Rate Cuts at New Highs

The Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 0.50% on Wednesday, with stock markets at or near all-time-highs. What does that signal for the economy and markets?

“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices.”

warren buffet

Focus on economic data and the weirdest presidential election in memory took a pause on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve met and reduced interest rates by a half of a percent.

Side Note: We will publish an election report in the coming weeks with our analysis of the potential election outcomes.

When the Fed cuts rates, it is important to understand the context in which the cut happens.

Essentially there are two environments to consider:

  1. Deteriorating economy and market
  2. Stable/Improving economy and market

Today, there is little question that the economy and market are stable.

Things can always change. And can change quickly.

But as of right now, stocks are at all-time-highs and gaining momentum. Economic data is holding up just fine, and we’re not seeing stress in the places that would be concerning.

So why cut?

Why did the Fed cut rates now?

In the two rate cutting environments mentioned above (deteriorating or stable data), interest rate cuts take on different roles.

When economic data is starting to weaken and markets are showing signs of stress, rate cuts help to pump liquidity into financial markets.

In theory, lower rates help to lessen the negative effects of a recession.

The idea is that lower rates decrease the cost of debt (consumer, corporate and government debt), helping the overall economy reduce costs to offset the potential for reduced economic output during a recession.

But today’s data is not recessionary.

In fact, we’re simply not seeing many signs at all of stress in financial markets that would be worrisome.

That means that this rate cut is likely a “normalization” rate cut.

Normalization Rate Cut

Normalization rate cuts are nothing more than cuts that happen outside of a pending recession.

The Federal Reserve spent over a decade at “abnormal” rates. (Zero percent rates for well over a decade is not normal).

This week’s cut appears to be a normalization with regards to inflation, not with regards to unemployment or the economy.

When inflation went from 1% to 9%, the Fed raised rates to slow inflation.

Then, inflation went from 9% to 3%. So the Fed cut rates this week.

Not because the economy is falling off a cliff, and not because unemployment ticked higher. (Higher unemployment numbers occurred because the government is now beginning to count illegal aliens in the number of unemployed people).

Anyone else getting frustrated with data manipulation?

But we digress.

With the cut this week, the Fed simply made the rates more in line with what the market is telling them they should be, and it appears the Fed is doing two things:

  1. The Fed is continuing to normalize interest rate policy after the chaotic inflation during COVID (caused by the Fed and other government policies).
  2. The Fed Funds rate is substantially higher than the 2-year Treasury yield, implying that the Fed is too restrictive with current rates, especially given the decline in inflation.

Our first chart shows these two yields.

This chart shows the 2-year Treasury yield (orange) versus the Fed Funds Rate (blue).

When the 2-year Treasury is higher than the Fed Funds rate (on the left side of the chart), the Fed is being restrictive in its policy. This is because the market is pricing in rates that are higher than what the 400 PhD. economists at the Fed think should be the proper rate.

The opposite is also true. When the 2-year Treasury yield is lower than the Fed Funds rate, they are being restrictive, as the market is telling them that rates should be reduced.

That has been the case for all of 2023 and 2024.

In this sense, the rate cuts were justified.

If we don’t see any further deterioration in the economy, this rate cut should be bullish.

Based on the initial reaction in stocks, the market agrees.

Normalization cuts overwhelmingly happen at or near all-time-highs, and they typically don’t signal an end to the bull market.

What has happened in the past when the Fed cut with markets at highs?

Rate Cuts with Stocks at All-Time-Highs

Another important data point when it comes to rate cuts is the timing of the first cut.

Our friend, Ryan Detrick, with the Carson Group, consistently has excellent charts about historical market reactions.

The two charts below show the times since 1980 that the Fed has cut rates when the S&P 500 Index was within 2% of an all-time-high.

Historically, when the Fed cuts rates with markets at all-time-highs, the market is higher one year later 100% of the time with an average gain of nearly 14%.

Bottom line is that being bearish on the markets at this point does not appear justified by the data.

Again, this can change and change quickly.

But for now, things look pretty good.

What Does Well After the First Rate Cut?

Another bullish development over the summer was a broadening out of participation in the bull market.

We have consistently been saying that small cap US stocks should play catch-up to the mega-cap tech that has done so well over the past two years.

This is supported also by stock performance after the first rate cut.

The next chart, courtesy of Bank of America, shows that small caps tend to outperform following the first rate cut.

This chart shows that over the next 6 and 12 months, small caps should outperform large caps if this historical relationship continues.

The reason this works is that smaller companies are more sensitive to bank interest rates than their large counterparts.

A 0.50% decrease in interest rates go mostly to the bottom line for smaller companies with debt.

This increases profitability and free cash flow, so it is logical that this would be the case.

More Rate Cuts?

Should we expect more rate cuts?

The real discussion is around the future path of interest rates.

Some people are predicting another 2% of cuts by the end of 2025.

It is our position that if we see another 1-2 rate cuts of 0.25% each, that would signal that we are likely headed to a recession.

It also would make sense that the Fed did a larger, 0.50% rate cut (instead of just 0.25%), so they wouldn’t have the appearance of propping up markets too close to the election.

Bottom Line

Bottom line is that this cut does not appear to be a signal that doom and gloom is headed our way.

That can happen, but the probabilities are not high that it will.

Instead, this rate cut looks like a normal response to declining inflation, and not a signal that the economy is deteriorating.

The market will now start to focus on earnings and the election.

We’ll put out another report discussing the election in the next few weeks.

Until then, invest wisely!

Thoughts on Recent Market Volatility

After an extended period of calm in financial markets, volatility has exploded higher the past two days. What caused it and should you be worried?

Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.

Maya Angelou

Webinar

We are holding a webinar on Tuesday, August 6th to answer your questions and discuss current market volatility.

Look for information in a separate email.

What is Happening?

A few data points have spooked the market recently:

  • Japanese Central Bank raised interest rates, causing a “carry trade” to unwind. (This is the main culprit).
  • Yield Curve briefly un-inverts.
  • A jobs number was relatively weak last week.
  • Geopolitical concerns around Iran and Israel.

Should We be Worried?

Not yet.

Market volatility is always unnerving, but at this point the data suggests that this is a temporary move lower that should not result in the start of a major bear market.

However, we do expect large moves both up and down over the coming week(s).

We will update you as necessary.

What Should We Look For?

Most importantly, we should see selling pressure reduce in the next 48 hours:

  • If the selling is temporary, we should see a big snap-back rally this week.
  • If the selling is NOT temporary, we should still expect a big rally, but it will quickly be reversed over the next week or two.

Are we Selling?

Not yet.

We have “volatility overrides” as part of our investment process. This means that if certain panic conditions are present, we do not sell positions that meet this criteria.

Today, our process identified the current move as a panic move.

The last time the market gave us panic signals was at the COVID low in March of 2020.

Are we Buying?

We added exposure to small caps on Friday, and will likely continue to add on this weakness.

We did not buy or sell any positions today, but do expect to allocate to risk as the selloff fades.

That said, we will not hesitate to raise cash if needed.

Market Review

Let’s go over a few charts today:

  • VIX Index (Volatility)
  • Credit Spreads
  • Japanese Yen Carry Trade

We will discuss more tomorrow in our webinar.

Volatility Index

The VIX index is giving us the best view of the spike in volatility.

The move we have seen since last week is quite amazing. Here’s the chart:

The blue line on top is the S&P 500 index (SPY), and the VIX index is in orange in the bottom pane of the chart.

This has been quite a spike higher, with the VIX approaching 70 today. It closed at 38 which is a good start.

Volatility doesn’t spike higher like this very often.

When it does, it has been an extremely good indicator that the selloff is either over or almost over.

This type of move typically does not mark a top in markets.

Quite the opposite in fact…this type of move usually signals that a low in price has either occurred or is close.

Credit Spreads

This is a warning sign that requires the most attention.

Anytime we see big moves lower in stocks, credit spreads widen a little as investors sell high-yield bonds and buy US Treasuries.

That is what we are seeing now, as shown in the next chart.

When this line goes up, it signals stress in the bond market.

Specifically, this shows the difference in yield between junk bonds and the 10-year US Treasury yield.

At 190 basis points, this means that junk bonds rated BAA only pay 1.90% above the 10-year treasury yield.

During the 2008 financial crisis, spreads jumped nearly 600 basis points, or 6%.

Normal spreads are 2-3%.

At readings of 1.9%, we are still below historical ranges.

For now, this indicator is not flashing warning signs, but the recent increase requires monitoring.

Japanese Yen Carry Trade

We saved this for last because it is the most complex.

We’ll try to simplify it.

A typical “carry trade” goes like this:

  1. Borrow money at low interest rates;
  2. Invest that money in assets that have higher return potential;
  3. Pay off the loan and keep the return minus the cost of the debt.

It’s essentially a fancy way to arbitrage, or make a spread between the cost of capital and the return you may get on the borrowed funds.

With the Yen carry trade, there are more factors at work.

One of the biggest factors is the currency conversion.

When money is borrowed in Yen, it is typically then converted to another currency, like the US Dollar.

That money is then invested in stocks or bonds.

The total return on the borrowed money is the return on the invested capital, plus or minus any return due to the currency moves.

When the Yen appreciates versus the US Dollar, it takes more dollars to pay off the initial loan in Yen. That means returns are diminished.

It then becomes stuck in a feedback loop.

The more assets that are converted back into Yen, the stronger the Yen becomes.

A stronger Yen puts more pressure on the carry trade, resulting in more selling.

More selling reduces return on the borrowed funds, resulting in a scramble to get out at any cost, as the return on the borrowed funds is eliminated by the strong Yen.

So let’s look at what the Yen has done.

Let’s review two charts:

  • Short-Term chart going back to last year;
  • Long-Term chart going back to the early 1990’s.

Let’s start with the short-term chart.

The move higher in the Yen appears to be a very large move.

When this line moves higher, the Yen is stronger. This hurts the carry trade.

When it moves lower, the Yen is weaker, helping to support the carry trade.

This move higher has resulted in a fast deleveraging of this carry trade.

Selling has been indiscriminate as investors try to reduce the damage from the strong Yen.

But like credit spreads, it’s helpful to take a broader view, so let’s look at the long-term chart.

Just like credit spreads, the short-term move looks bad.

But by zooming out, we can see that the move hasn’t been all that unusual.

It may signal a massive trend change in favor of the Yen, but it is too early to say that with any conviction.

Bottom Line

The declines over the past two days have not been pretty. But at this point there is not enough evidence to get too defensive.

We will have plenty of information in the coming days, and will keep you posted on our analysis.

We will discuss this more in-depth in our webinar tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that email.

Invest wisely!

2024 Outlook

Following a strong year in 2023, financial markets enter 2024 with strong momentum. Will this momentum continue?  Or will one of the risks push the market off it’s high wire?

In our 2024 Outlook report, we discuss the following:

  1. S&P 500 – New Highs are Bullish
  2. Liquidity Waterfall
  3. Small/Mid Caps Look Attractive
  4. Financial Conditions are Loose
  5. Signs of Stress not Apparent
  6. Risk #1: Inflation & Interest Rates
  7. Risk #2: Commercial Real Estate Risks
  8. Risk #3: Presidential Election
  9. Risk #4: De-Globalization
  10. Positioning
  11. Answer Your Questions

Invest wisely!

Where Oceans Meet but Don’t Mix

He released the two seas, meeting side by side. Between them is a barrier neither of them can transgress.

– The quran 55:19-21

Financial markets work in cycles.

Some cycles are short, lasting only hours. Like those following Fed meetings.

Others, however, last decades.

And when longer-term investment cycles change, things don’t always mix well.

Like many characteristics of financial markets, we see this phenomenon in nature as well.

What implications will this transition of investment cycles have on financial markets?

The Meeting of Oceans

At the southern tip of South Africa, the warm currents of the Indian Ocean meet the frigid currents of the Atlantic Ocean, as seen in the illustration below.

The dividing line between the Atlantic ocean and the Indian ocean is similar to when long-term investment cycles change.

Unlike geographic boundaries, the dividing line where these two oceans meet is determined by the CONDITIONS on each side of the line.

And despite their proximity, the composition of nearly everything in each respective ocean is different from one another.

Lifeforms, currents, temperatures, and mineral composition of the water all differ depending on which side of the boundary you look.

What is common place and normal under one set of conditions is abnormal and unusual in the next cycle.

Today, we are dealing with the transition from a falling interest rate cycle to a rising one.

The investment cycle, much like the meeting point of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, is a place where forces collide, currents shift, and the landscape changes in unpredictable ways.

The transition between cycles is not always a clean one, either.

It can be messy.

This is because with longer-term cycles, investors become engrained in their belief that the underlying causes of the previous market cycle will continue into the next cycle.

Inflation & Interest Rate Cycles

The cycle we’re dealing with today is the inflation and interest cycle.

Historically, the full cycle lasts 60 years.

That’s 30 years of rising rates followed by 30 years of declining rates.

We can see this cycle on our first the chart below, courtesy of Tom McClellan.

The declining interest rate cycle that likely ended last year is actually quite late getting started.

According to the 30-year cycle, rates should have begun moving higher in 2010.

But the Fed had a different idea, and placed their thumb on the scale to keep interest rates at zero for another decade.

The decline in rates began in 1982. And began moving higher again in 2022.

That’s 40 years of a financial tailwind of declining interest rates supporting higher and higher asset prices.

When interest rates fall, the cost of money decreases. And when the cost of money decreases, profits rise.

This creates a “virtuous circle” of investment, where the declining cost of debt makes investment projects more and more appealing as rates fall.

But the inverse is true also.

Rising interest rates push the cost of capital higher, putting downward pressure on profit margins.

This pressure on profits results in many stocks struggling to grow during rising rate environments, mostly due to the influence of interest rates on valuations.

Stock Valuations and Interest Rates

One of the easiest places to visualize the effect of interest rates on the stock market is via valuations.

The next chart shows a scatter plot of the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 versus the 10-year US Treasury yield.

The yield of the 10-year Treasury is shows on the x-axis from left to right. The y-axis is the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index.

Each blue dot shows the P/E ratio at the end of each month for the past 20 years, along with the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yield.

What this chart tells us is that there is a DIRECT correlation between interest rates and valuations.

And the formula is pretty easy: higher rates = lower valuations.

Most of the market is respecting this phenomenon.

The “Magnificent 7” is a term used for the largest seven companies in the index: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Google and Tesla.

This “Magnificent 7” is still trading as if interest rates were almost zero.

In the chart above, the red dot shows these seven stocks.

At an average valuation of 29.5, they are 72% more expensive than the rest of the S&P 500.

They may have better future growth prospects than other stocks, but this is still a very obvious data point where investors are assuming the lessons of the previous cycle will repeat in the next one.

The implication is that at some point in the next few months or years we should see reality start to set in for these big tech stocks.

That means that eventually we will start to see mid-caps, small-caps, international stocks and other investments start to outperform big tech stocks.

We’re seeing this in our system. We have recently added small caps, mid-caps and international stocks to client portfolios.

If interest rates put downward pressure on valuations, what does that mean bigger picture for the stock market?

Let’s look at the last two rising rate cycles for clues.

Rising Interest Rate Cycle (early 1900’s)

The last two times US markets experienced a rising interest rate cycle was in the 1970’s and the early 1900’s.

Let’s look at the early 1900’s first.

The next chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1895 to 1925.

During this time, interest rates moved from a low of 3.7% to a high of over 6%.

This was the last interest rate cycle that happened before the existence of the Federal Reserve.

Over this period, stocks returned a whopping 1.4% per year compounded return.

Not great.

Interestingly, both GDP and earnings grew over the same period of time, much faster than the overall growth in equities.

This is because higher rates kept valuations low compared to the low rates of the previous cycle.

That’s great, but can we really compare today’s world to the one 100 years ago?

After all, isn’t everything different?

Sort of.

The one common denominator is us.

Humans are the key to the investment cycle.

With all of our flaws, behavioral oddities and penchant for making the same mistakes over and over and over, we bring our inherent biases to our actions whether we know it or not.

Sure, we think we’re smarter. After all, we have all the information in the world at our fingertips via our smart phones. But we tend to use it to view cat videos. So are we really that much more advanced?

But we digress.

So what about a more recent rising rate cycle?

Rising Interest Rate Cycle (1970’s)

The last time the US economy went through a rising rate cycle was in the 1970’s.

How did this compare to the period in the early 1900’s?

Answer?

Not any better.

In fact, stocks returned 0% over nearly 20 years.

Stocks had a nice move higher post-WWII, but ran into the same valuation wall as it did in the early 1900’s.

Higher interest rates simply make it more difficult for stocks to grow over time.

There are many factors that go into the relationship between interest rates and valuations:

  • High interest rates compete for capital. Cash paying 5% has attracted dollars that otherwise would have gone into stocks.
  • The current value of a future stream of cash flows goes down as the discount rate goes up.
  • Financing costs increase, reducing profitability.

One thing is for sure: we must pay attention as these cycles change.

Mini-Cycles Within the Larger Cycle

If we have indeed made the transition from a declining rate environment to a rising one, we should expect broad stock markets to struggle more than they did in the previous cycle.

In these environments, bull markets will likely be measured in months instead of years.

In both previous rising rate cycles, stocks had mini-bull markets that lasted from 24-36 months.

They were typically followed by bear markets lasting 18-24 months.

During the 1970’s, we saw 5 mini-bull markets, and 5 mini-bear markets, shown in the next two charts.

During each mini-bull market, prices met or slightly exceeded new highs on each subsequent move.

But each time markets would try to push to new highs, inflation would rise and a mild recession would occur. Stocks would fall to the low end of the range, and a mini-bear market would ensue.

This is the definition of a choppy market.

And this is the market that we may very well have over the coming decade.

Flash forward to today, and we’re in a bull market that has lasted 13 months thus far.

If the current cycle is anything like previous ones, we could see this mini-bull last a bit longer, possibly into mid-to-late 2024.

But chances are we should not expect a long-term bull market like we had during the 1980’s, 1990’s and 2010’s.

Bottom Line

The ebb and flow of interest rates and inflation create a dynamic environment that demands careful navigation.

In the coming years, it will become increasingly important to adjust exposure to risk based on non-emotional signals.

It will also become increasingly important to generate yield and not just rely on market appreciation to meet your financial goals.

A higher interest rate environment allows you to reduce risk and volatility over time.

But this rising interest rate cycle is not a two-year cycle that began in 2022 and ends in 2023.

Higher interest rates will likely be with us for many years into the future.

Invest wisely!

Market Video: Orderly Correction & Commercial Real Estate Risks

In this Market Insights video, we discuss the current state of the market and delve into the stress that is starting to show in the commercial real estate sector.

We also analyze the GDP for the third quarter and present three scenarios that could unfold in the coming months and years.

Join us as we explore these topics and gain valuable insights into the market’s performance.

  • 00:45 S&P 500 Index
  • 02:13 Russell 2000 Small Caps
  • 04:54 Performance of Different Markets
  • 05:46 Delinquent Loans in Commercial Real Estate
  • 06:33 Delinquency Rates in Retail, Lodging, and Office
  • 09:23 GDP for the Third Quarter
  • 10:29 Scenarios for the Future

Please don’t hesitate to reach with any questions.

Invest wisely!

Price versus Earnings

The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.

Jesse Livermore, stock trader and author

Stock markets are complex.

Unfortunately, there are many variables that move markets higher or lower.

However, not all variable are created equal.

Two of the big ones are the P/E ratio and earnings.

The P/E ratio (or price-to-earnings ratio) is a simple measurement that takes price per share of a stock or index and divides it by the earnings per share.

If a stock trade at $100, and earns $5/share, its P/E ratio is 20. ($100 divided by $5).

Another way to think about this is that the P/E ratio is a gauge of how much an investor is willing to pay per dollar of earnings.

One interesting aspect of the market increase this year is that it has been exclusively due to an increase in valuations.

Last October, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index was 16.3.

Today, it is 20.6.

Meanwhile, earnings for the S&P 500 have fallen 9.3% since last summer.

The chart below shows this discrepancy.

In this chart, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 (shown in green) has mirrored the price of the S&P 500 (shown in blue).

Meanwhile, earnings (in orange) have consistently fallen over the past year. Granted, there is a glimmer of hope with the slight increase so far this quarter.

This discrepancy between the P/E ratio and EPS is the result of market participants paying more per dollar of earnings, and is essentially a sign of speculation.

However, this discrepancy could actually be a good sign.

Why?

This type of behavior typically happens when markets exit a recession.

Prices tend to move higher first, before the fundamentals start to reflect a more positive environment.

The next chart shows this same dynamic coming out of the 2009 lows.

The S&P and its P/E ratio rose in tandem after the lows in March of 2009, while EPS continued to fall.

There are major differences to consider in the comparison with 2009:

  • Today, valuations are elevated by historical standards at 21. In 2009, the P/E ratio was 12.
  • Interest rates today are over 5% and rising. In 2009, they were zero with no expectation of going up anytime soon.
  • We had one of the largest recessions in history in 2009, while we haven’t had one at all today.
  • Sentiment was extremely pessimistic in 2009, with optimism the overwhelming sentiment today.

So while today’s environment is very different from that of 2009, the behavior of the markets is very similar.

If earnings can start catching up to valuations, that will help remove the risk of a major decline in stocks.

Bottom line

While we are not out of the woods just yet, there are many positive developments happening.

With elevated valuations like we have now, the possibility of entering a long-term bull market seems low.

But the possibility of a major bear market is decreasing as well.

That means a sideways, choppy market for a long period of time could be what ends up happening.

In that type of environment, income and dividends will be important.

It will also be very important to not chase every market rise, and to not feel FOMO when markets go through periods of positive price action.

In a sideways market, the turtle wins the race.

Invest wisely!

2023 Mid-Year Outlook Webinar

View the recording of our 2023 Mid-Year Outlook webinar.

Here are the topics we discussed and the time in the recording it happens so you can fast-forward to topics you find most relevant:

  • Recession probabilities (1:29)
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones & Russell 2000 (4:51)
  • Concentrated performance contribution YTD (8:48)
  • S&P 500 Index (10:11)
  • Russell 2000 small cap stock index (14:37)
  • Fed Balance sheet vs S&P 500 (16:14)
  • Banking stocks still under pressure (18:01)
  • Commercial real estate loans maturing over the next 5 years (19:24)
  • Yield curve (24:56)
  • Manufacturing PMIs and activity (29:10)
  • Portfolio Equity Positioning (31:27)
  • Scenarios, Risks & Opportunities (35:00)
  • Upside and Downside potential performance based on three scenarios (39:40)

Invest wisely!

Debt Ceiling: More Smoke than Fire

image of old building on american banknote

Negotiations on the debt limit are heating up in Washington.

What implications may it have?

In our view, negotiations are mostly political posturing by both sides trying to gauge the likelihood that the “other side” will ultimately be blamed from bad things that may or may not happen as a result of not raising the debt ceiling.

Unfortunately, this political grandstanding is all too common.

Regarding the debt ceiling, agreements have always been reached.

We have thought for many months that the risk of an actual default on U.S. Treasuries is very unlikely. Neither side benefits from this, and both sides are likely to be blamed.

However, politicians are gonna politic.

It appears that our fearless leaders want to sufficiently scare us in order to get their faces on the front page of every newspaper around the globe while we wait for them to announce an agreement.

But we digress.

In order to better understand the situation, let’s look at the history of the debt ceiling first, then look at the potential impact on financial markets.

Debt Ceiling Overview

The debt ceiling was first implemented in 1917 with the passage of the Second Liberty Bond Act.

This was done to fund the war effort during World War I.

The goal was to provide a limit to the amount of debt the U.S. government can issue via treasury bonds while keeping Congress fiscally constrained.

For many years, this worked.

But over the past few decades, the debt ceiling has done absolutely nothing to restrain spending.

The chart below from the BBC shows the debt ceiling (black line) versus total outstanding federal debt. Republican presidents are shaded red while Democrats are blue.

It’s not hard to see that when debt reaches the debt ceiling, Congress simply raises it.

This is not a Democrat versus Republican thing. No one has fiscal restraint in Washington.

And despite “negotiating” spending limits nearly every time the debt limit is raised, there has been exactly zero reduction in spending during any administration, regardless of which party is in power.

We’ll discuss 2011 more below, but part of the deal to raise the debt limit then was that Congress projected over $2 trillion in savings over the next ten years.

What happened?

Debt increased by nearly $20 trillion.

Any talking points from a deal in 2023 is likely to be just that…talking points.

Previous deals to reduce spending failed. Why would this time be any different?

What are the potential market implications if a deal does or doesn’t get done?

Potential Market Implications

When looking at potential market implications with any type of event, it is most important to look at the actual data.

Since 1980, there have been 74 debt limit increases.

Only one of them truly resulted in major market volatility: 2011.

The vast majority of the time, the debt limit does not have any meaningful impact.

The next chart looks at the S&P 500 versus the statutory debt limit.

The orange line is the debt limit and the white line is the S&P 500.

It’s pretty easy to see that periods of volatility did not necessarily correlate to debt increases:

  • During the tech bubble, the debt limit remained flat. This was also the last time Washington was fiscally conservative.
  • The debt limit was increased in 2008, but that obviously was not the cause of the financial crisis.

In fact, you could argue that the markets and the debt limit are positively correlated. This means that when the debt limit goes up, so does the market.

As we mentioned earlier, the only real exception was in 2011.

What happened to asset prices then?

The next chart shows performance of various assets during and after the debt crisis in 2011.

This chart shows asset performance from May through December of 2011, and includes long-term treasury bonds, the broad bond market, large-cap stocks, and small-cap stocks, developed international stocks, and emerging market stocks.

The vertical red dashed line is the date when President Obama and Congressional Republicans finally agreed on an increase. At the same time, U.S. debt was downgraded from AAA to AA for the first time in history.

A few interesting observations from this chart:

  1. Volatility didn’t start until AFTER an agreement was reached.
  2. Ironically, the best performer by far was long-term U.S. treasury bonds.
  3. International stocks performed the worst, with developed and emerging markets both down over 25% through year-end.
  4. The S&P 500 index was down 12% in the months following the debt increase.

The other thing to note about 2011 is that the Fed ended QE2 in July of 2011. So there was a natural headwind from reduced Fed liquidity at the time of this volatility.

There are similarities between then and now:

  • Republicans won a mid-term election the year before.
  • The Fed is in tightening mode.
  • Political divisiveness is high.

Maybe we see a replay of the 2011 situation.

We hear many pundits saying that treasury bond prices will plummet if a deal isn’t reached. Others are saying that markets will crash.

But probabilities suggest otherwise.

Like most political events, this one is likely to have a very short-term effect on markets.

Bottom Line

By all indications, a deal to raise the debt ceiling is close.

But even if it extends out another few weeks, the likelihood that the U.S. defaults on its debt payments and a global catastrophe follows is extremely low.

Any reaction by financial markets, whether positive or negative, is likely to be temporary.

After that initial reaction, markets will go back to looking at data as if nothing happened.

Right now, data is extremely mixed.

Economic indicators are weakening, but overall, the stock market has remained very calm.

As we’ve said for months, risks from an economic standpoint remain very high. This week alone, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both announced that a recession this year is highly likely. We agree.

Without question, volatility will increase if negative economic events occur.

But don’t expect the debt ceiling to be culprit.

Invest wisely!